Global chip shortage could last until 2023

Analysts estimate that the thirst for semiconductor chip supply will last until 2023.

Semiconductor chips are an essential component in every electronic product, from the PlayStaytion 5 to toothbrushes, to washing machines and alarm clocks. But the current supply of chips is not enough for the market and this shortage shows no sign of abating. Many people call this the chip crisis - "chipageddon".

The cause of this crisis, according to many experts, in addition to the impact of the US-China trade war, also came from a wrong prediction of chip market demand last year when Covid-19 broke out.

Glenn O'Donnell, VP of research at Forrester believes the chip shortage could last until 2023. "Demand continues to grow while supply is unlikely to improve in the near term," said O'Donnell. ' said Donnell.

He expects demand for computers, which use some of the most advanced chips, to decline slightly next year but not significantly. However, the data centers, where the server system is located, will buy more chips in 2021 after the "dismal" last year.

The unstoppable trend of the deviceization of things and the growth of cloud computing and cryptocurrencies has led this expert to say that he "sees nothing but a boom in chip demand".

Meanwhile, Patrick Armstrong, CTO of Plurimi Investment Managers last week assessed that the global chip shortage will last for 18 months (until November 2022).

According to him, the chip shortage affects not only the auto industry, but also the phone sector and broader internet of things trend. "There are far more devices using chips than there used to be. They're all connected to the internet," he said.

But cars are the industry most affected by the global chip thirst.

Earlier this month, the world's largest chip maker TSMC (Taiwan) said it could meet customers' chip needs in June. But Armstrong considered this to be too ambitious a goal.

"If you listen to Ford, BMW, Volkswagen, they all emphasize that there are capacity bottlenecks and they don't have enough chips to make new cars," he said.

Similarly, information technology research and consulting company Gartner also estimates that the chip shortage will last through 2021 and affect into 2022.

"The chip industry is ramping up capacity but it still takes time," said Alan Priestley, an analyst at Gartner.

In March, Intel announced plans to spend $20 billion to build two more chip factories in Arizona. The group also said that it could build one more factory in Europe if it can mobilize financial resources.

These plans take two to three years to see results, but they will meet future demand for the product, Priestley commented.

CEO of chip maker Infineon (Germany) Reinhard Ploss said it will take time for chip supply and demand to balance. "Two years is too long, but this shortage will certainly continue into 2022," he said. Additional capacity will be implemented and the situation will be more stable next year.

Wenzhe Zhao, director of global economics and strategy at Credit Suisse, said that the chip crisis has increased the need to hoard this item, causing the gap between supply and demand to widen.

He said that as early as 2022, the new production capacity additions will be realized. Therefore, to improve the current situation, there is no other way but to adjust the order, production schedule and price.